The hottest three-month range is 45. There is anot

45% in three months! Pulp futures rose this round "there is another secret"

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core tip: since the listing of pulp futures on November 27, 2019, in addition to the periodic rise, the highest fell from 5680/ton to the low 4264/ton under the impact of the epidemic, and has been in the bottom shaking trend for a long time

since the listing of pulp futures on November 27, 2019, in addition to the periodic rise, the highest fell from 5680/ton to the low 4264/ton under the impact of the epidemic, and has been in the bottom oscillation trend for a long time. However, since the beginning of November 2020, pulp futures have risen from 4542/ton to 6584/ton, breaking the previous high, with an increase of 45%, opening a round of sharp rise. Looking at the spot price, take the price of black needles and cloth needles as an example. At present, the spot price has increased by 36.8% to 6200/ton, which is at the 81.60% percentile level in 2014, and the increase rate is inferior to that of futures. According to the spot performance, it is not difficult to find that the contango structure of the market remains unchanged under this round of rising market, which is different from the general continuous rising market of commodities. Therefore, we will pay attention to the issue of when the rise of pulp will stop. This paper will discuss this issue from different dimensions

the demand is rigid and the increment is expected

from the perspective of the proportion of downstream consumption of pulp, household paper accounts for about 45%, printing paper accounts for about 27%, special paper accounts for about 16%, and packaging paper accounts for about 9% globally; Domestic household paper accounts for about 9%, printing paper accounts for 23.22%, and carton board and corrugated base paper consumption accounts for about 45%. According to the above consumption structure, combined with the evolution of the global and domestic epidemic, the global household paper is still biased towards rigidity and even increased. Printing paper and packaging paper have a relatively large impact, but their demand is still biased towards rigidity; The domestic epidemic prevention and control is effective, and the downstream demand for pulp recovers rapidly. Therefore, on the whole, the downstream demand for pulp is relatively rigid, and there will not be a cliff like decline like some other commodities. In addition, 2.2 selection of a/d converter and peripheral circuit design with the gradual normalization of the epidemic and better expectations, the downstream demand margin of pulp is getting better

domestic pulp demand has recovered rapidly and is expected to increase, which is mainly reflected in the "double ban" policy. First, the implementation of the "plastic ban order" will increase the demand for some packaging paper. The second is the "prohibition order". From 2021, China will completely ban the import of solid waste (including waste paper), and waste paper consumption has always been the largest part of pulp consumption. In 2019, waste paper consumption accounted for 57% of pulp consumption, and its price rise and fall played a stepping stone role in the price focus of the entire pulp industry. The reduction of waste paper import in 2020 has resulted in a waste paper supply gap of 4.5 million tons. After the continuous prohibition of waste paper import in 2021, the waste paper gap will continue to expand. At present, the price of waste pulp has also risen, which has a potential drive for the rise of the whole pulp price

the supply increment is not much, and the pressure margin decreases

according to the latest data of pppc, the output of needle pulp in 2020 is expected to be 27.985 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. The output growth in 2021 is limited, about 14000 tons, and the average growth rate from 2021 to 2024 is about zero. In 2020, the output of broad-leaved pulp is expected to be 37.985 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 0.2%. Coupled with lower raw material costs, the output of broad-leaved pulp is expected to increase by about 630000 tons in 2021, and the average growth rate from 2021 to 2024 is about 1.8%, which is obviously put into operation in 2023. On the whole, 2021 is still in a period of slight growth in production capacity, and has been able to meet demand since 2007. However, under the expectation that demand is rigid and marginal, the supply pressure in 2021 is marginal

supply diversion, industrial chain linkage to promote growth

the above has been described from the macro logic of pulp supply and demand, indicating that pulp prices are based on and driven by growth. Next, the current fundamental logic is described from the perspective of industrial chain. At present, with the limited annual capacity increment of pulp and the real reduction of 400000 tons of multi-purpose leaf pulp output of one machine due to maintenance in 2020, with the normalization of the impact of the epidemic abroad (such as the origin of wood pulp in the Americas, Western Europe and other places), the gradual landing of vaccines, the gradual rise of demand, the diversion of pulp supply, the marginal reduction of domestic pulp supply pressure, the increase of superimposed shipping charges by as much as 3 times, and the quotation of pulp outer disc rising. Due to good domestic demand, combined with the continuous appreciation of the RMB, large traders have hoarded goods, resulting in the gradual rise of domestic spot prices, which also explains why under the condition of acceptable overall supply, inventories have declined and the premium of pulp futures has risen all the way. The downstream of pulp raised the price of paper products one after another when the cost of raw materials rose, the price of paper products was at the bottom of history and the demand was expected to increase. Therefore, in the case of upstream reluctant sales, intermediate traders and large paper mills hoarding, the whole industrial chain linkage promotes growth

the short-term strength of pulp price remains unchanged, and attention is paid to structural changes

combined with the warmer overall macro atmosphere, there is an expected increase in demand. At present, there is still room for the rise of foreign pulp prices, and there is still no phenomenon of stock selling in China, so the pulp price will remain strong in the short term as a whole. In addition, when the actual supply of pulp is relatively sufficient, we need to focus on the change of pulp price structure: the first is the change of monthly price difference. At present, the price difference remains stable. Once the monthly price difference continues to expand, it means that the rise has come to an end; The second is the current price difference. Once the external pulp rises weakly and the basis of pulp futures continues to weaken, it indicates that the logic of industrial linkage to promote growth is broken, and the continuous rise of pulp will end

to sum up, the medium and long-term pulp price is still optimistic, and the short-term pulp price will remain strong, and there is no basis for trend shorting. At present, the price can still be bargain hunting, light positions and long positions, and focus on the continuous changes in the monthly price difference and the future cash structure, stop the profit in time and make the corresponding investment plan